Three times on the trot the ball has crashed into Sachin Tendulkar’s stumps and we are reminded of the similar dismissals of Rahul Dravid not too long ago.
Sachin Tendulkar's stumps being struck by the cherry once too often – three times out of three in the New Zealand series – makes one wonder if one is hearing the death rattle of a noble career.
After all, fresh in our immediate memory are the 11 times Rahul Dravid has been bowled after turning 38
.
Although not many will remember the exact figure, the repeated sound of the ball finding a fissure in the wall and its way to strike timber still makes us wince. And that heart stopping clatter is being echoed innings after innings for Sachin Tendulkar.
If we take all cricketers into consideration from the very beginning of Test cricket, we find that bowled constitutes 21.49% of the total dismissals. If we consider all the innings played by those under the age of 38, this figure is 21.37%. For men over 38, this jumps to 25.65%.
Statistically, this deviation is significant – we can say that the proportion of bowled dismissals becomes considerably more after the age of 38 with 99.98% confidence.
All Batsmen
|
Under 38
|
Over 38
|
Total
|
Other dismissals
|
61081
|
1879
|
62960
|
Bowled
|
13054
|
482
|
13536
|
Total
|
74135
|
2361
|
76496
|
Percentage bowled
|
17.61
|
20.42
|
17.70
|
p-value
|
0.9997
|
If we consider only the top order batsmen, leaving out tailenders who are prone to get bowled anyway – by taking only the ones who batted at numbers 1 to 7 – the results are similar. The percentage leaps from 16.43 for the under-38 to 19.29 for over-38, which, again, is statistically significant. We can say so with 99.92% confidence.
Batting at 1-7
|
Under 38
|
Over 38
|
Total
|
Other dismissals
|
44140
|
1393
|
45533
|
Bowled
|
8675
|
333
|
9008
|
Total
|
52815
|
1726
|
54541
|
Percentage bowled
|
16.43
|
19.29
|
16.52
|
pvalue
|
0.9992
|
However, the curious fact is that the batsmen at batting orders 1-7 have an overall average of 35.91, which shoots up to 37.80 for the 38-plus group. The reason is obviously that to bat at this level when over 38, one has to be very, very good – a Jack Hobbs, a Don Bradman or a Rahul Dravid.
If we look at a sample of individual batsmen across time who have played past 38, we find that not everyone gets bowled more often. In fact, for Hobbs, Geoff Boycott and Clive Llyod, the percentage decreases drastically. And if we consider that Bradman was bowled 44% of the times he was dismissed post-38, we do find it has little to do with quality or performance.
Overall Dismissals
|
Before 38
|
After 38
|
Percentage Bowled
| ||||||
All
|
Bowled
|
All
|
Bowled
|
All
|
Bowled
|
Overall
|
Before 38
|
After 38
| |
J Hobbs
|
95
|
24
|
43
|
14
|
52
|
10
|
25.26
|
32.56
|
19.23
|
P Hendren
|
74
|
26
|
28
|
10
|
46
|
16
|
35.14
|
35.71
|
34.78
|
D Bradman
|
70
|
23
|
52
|
15
|
18
|
8
|
32.86
|
28.85
|
44.44
|
T Graveney
|
110
|
26
|
74
|
16
|
36
|
10
|
23.64
|
21.62
|
27.78
|
C Cowdrey
|
173
|
31
|
162
|
28
|
14
|
3
|
18.13
|
17.28
|
21.43
|
G Boycott
|
170
|
30
|
111
|
22
|
59
|
8
|
17.65
|
19.82
|
13.56
|
C Lloyd
|
161
|
27
|
134
|
24
|
27
|
3
|
16.77
|
17.91
|
11.11
|
V Richards
|
170
|
36
|
154
|
34
|
16
|
2
|
21.18
|
22.08
|
12.50
|
G Gooch
|
209
|
36
|
154
|
27
|
55
|
9
|
17.22
|
17.53
|
16.36
|
S Waugh
|
224
|
39
|
216
|
38
|
8
|
1
|
17.41
|
17.59
|
12.50
|
R Dravid
|
254
|
55
|
230
|
44
|
24
|
11
|
21.65
|
19.13
|
45.83
|
S Tendulkar
|
282
|
51
|
258
|
46
|
24
|
5
|
18.09
|
17.83
|
20.83
|
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